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Latest Article

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: A Market Rotation Amid Tech Turbulence

Markets saw a sharp pickup in volatility last week as weakness in technology, especially software stocks, dragged major indices. The rotation into real-asset industries has continued, as oil & gas, chemicals, transportation, consumer staples, and regional banks continue to outperform since tech stocks began to lose momentum late last year. The S&P 500 gave back its year-to-date gains amid a nearly 25% three-month decline in software and broader concerns about AI-driven disruption to existing business models. Despite this, the Dow Jones hit a fresh all-time high, supporting the rotation narrative. AI-related capital spending announcements from Alphabet and Amazon surprised to the upside, reinforcing confidence in long-term infrastructure demand but also raising questions about returns and elevated valuation pressure across tech. Risk appetite fell sharply, with bitcoin dropping to $60,000 before rebounding toward $70,000 and precious metals swinging widely. Economic data showed signs of labor market weakening with softer payroll gains, higher layoffs, and falling job openings. Though, manufacturing activity and consumer sentiment improved. Overall, the week illustrated a market undergoing repricing and rotation rather than fundamental deterioration, while ongoing volatility keeps near-term direction uncertain.

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Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Volatility, Fed on Hold, and Earnings Strength

Capital markets were volatile last week as major stock indices swung between early week gains and a late week pullback driven largely by mixed mega-cap technology earnings. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, signaling a slightly more hawkish stance while acknowledging solid economic activity and a stabilizing labor market. The stock market reacted sharply on Friday after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, a move perceived as modestly dovish relative to Chair Powell. Earnings season remained strong, with more than 90 S&P 500 companies reporting and showing broad-based revenue and earnings growth that reflects continued economic strength. Meanwhile, inflation data surprised to the upside, particularly the PPI report, suggesting potentially stickier price pressures. Small-cap equities underperformed during the week, marking a brief slowdown after an otherwise strong start to the year. Commodities saw significant fluctuations, with gold and silver swinging lower following the Fed chair nomination on Friday, while crude oil pushed to a four-month high. On balance, the week highlighted a market navigating mixed signals yet still showing steady resilience amid elevated volatility.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Markets Stay Resilient Despite Global Headlines

Last week, capital markets displayed notable resilience in the face of nonstop geopolitical drama and political headlines. Investors largely looked through events such rising tensions abroad, questions about the Fed’s independence, and aggressive affordability initiatives, focusing instead on stable macro fundamentals. Equity markets continued to benefit from broadening leadership, with small- and mid-cap equities and international markets outperforming traditional mega-cap growth exposure. Inflation data remained stable, extending the trend of moderating price pressures, and economic reports showed strong consumer spending, low layoffs, and upbeat GDP estimates. Corporate earnings trends remain constructive, with expectations for a tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year profit growth led by strength across all eleven S&P 500 sectors. Fixed income markets saw yields drift modestly higher, driven in part by speculation over the next Federal Reserve Chair and persistent strength in economic data. Meanwhile, commodity markets reflected ample global supply, with crude prices remaining near five-year lows despite geopolitical risks. Altogether, the week reinforced a consistent theme: fundamentals—not headlines—continue to drive markets forward.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Early-Year Market Trends Take Shape

The start of 2026 was marked by significant geopolitical, economic, and policy events. U.S. military action in Venezuela and the capture of its leader raised questions about long-term oil supply and global precedents. U.S. labor-market data showed a continued slowdown, with December job gains below expectations and downward revisions to prior months, but the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.4%. Bond market prices suggest expectations for the Federal Reserve to proceed cautiously in 2026, with potential for one or two rate cuts during the year, as inflation remains above target but is not showing signs of reaccelerating. The Supreme Court is poised to rule on the legality of recent tariffs in the coming weeks, but any market impact could be limited due to alternative tariff mechanisms available to the administration and the relatively small scale of potential refunds relative to US GDP. Equity markets rallied, with the S&P 500 and Dow hitting record highs and small cap stocks outperforming, reflecting broadening market participation beyond mega-cap tech. Overall, markets remain focused on earnings growth and economic resilience, there is potential for short-term volatility around the upcoming inflation and Q4 earnings reports.

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Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Markets Ease to Start 2026 as Rate-Cut Expectations Shift

US equity markets opened 2026 with the S&P 500 retreating from its prior week’s all-time high. Trading volumes were light as 2025 concluded, and the modest pullback could be partly explained by year-end tax-loss selling and a drift higher in longer-term Treasury yields. The release of December FOMC minutes showed heightened disagreement among Fed officials, which contributed to reduced market expectations for near-term rate cuts. Current market probabilities suggest the April Fed meeting as the earliest a rate cut is likely to occur. Labor market data remained tight, with initial jobless claims falling and continuing claims easing. Market breadth weakened across major U.S. indices, reflecting narrower participation. Meanwhile, leadership came from select technology names, particularly semiconductor and AI infrastructure companies, while mega-cap tech was mixed. Overall, US markets ended the week lower, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all logging roughly 1% declines to close out 2025 and begin the new year.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Markets React Positively to Fed Messaging

Last week, markets responded positively to the Federal Reserve’s meeting, with the rally driven more by the central bank’s messaging than the widely expected 25 basis point rate cut. Small-cap equities outperformed, while tech stocks lagged due to concerns over AI spending and mixed earnings reports. The week closed with mixed equity performance, as cyclical and value stocks climbed, but growth and tech names lagged. The Fed signaled a likely pause in its easing cycle but remained open to further cuts if labor market weakness persists. Markets continue to price in lower rates for 2026, with current expectations pointing toward one to two additional cuts during the year. By committing to buy Treasury bills to support short-term liquidity, the Fed delivered what many market participants interpreted as a dovish move. The yield curve continued its recent steepening with shorter term rates slightly falling and longer-term rates rising. Oil prices fell sharply, while silver surged to record highs.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Markets Steady as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise

Last week, markets remained largely steady as investors awaited the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with the S&P 500 posting modest gains and remaining just below all-time highs. The probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the December meeting rose to over 95%, driven by contained inflation and a softer near-term economic outlook. The U.S. Treasury yield curve continued to steepen as short-term rates dropped sharply while longer-term yields rose, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.14% partially due to rising Japanese government bond yields and expectations for a more hawkish Bank of Japan. Labor market data was mixed: ADP reported the largest private payroll decline in over two years, but initial jobless claims dropped to a three-year low. Inflation data showed core PCE rising 2.8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations, while consumer sentiment improved modestly. Equity markets consolidated after a strong November, with the S&P 500 up 18% year-to-date and the Nasdaq up 23%. As we approach year-end, some potential markets will be closely watching this week’s Fed rate decision and the delayed November jobs report. Reviewing portfolios for potential rebalancing may be prudent as equity gains may have shifted expected allocations.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Markets Gain Momentum Heading Into December

Markets rebounded after early November volatility, with major U.S. indexes posting strong weekly gains. International equities also continued their impressive 2025 performance, supported by a weaker dollar and improving global growth outlook. US economic resilience continues, as recession expectations continue to fade and consumer spending remains resilient. Corporate profits are strong, with S&P 500 earnings on track for an 11% year-over-year increase and margins near record highs. AI-driven innovation continues to underpin tech sector strength, though concentration risks persist. The Fed’s resumed easing cycle has eased financial conditions, which helped mortgage rates decline. Inflation has moderated slightly, falling from 3% in 2024 to 2.7% in 2025. Treasury yields hovered near 4%, offering historically attractive income opportunities for bond investors. Seasonal trends of the S&P 500 suggest potential for a strong year-end finish, as December has historically delivered positive returns about 70% of the time of the last 30 years.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Markets Navigate Volatility Amid Fed Uncertainty

Global markets experienced heightened volatility last week, with equities posting further declines and continuing their worst run since the tariff-driven sell-offs in April. The technology sector, particularly AI-related stocks, faced renewed profit-taking and bubble concerns, despite strong earnings from NVIDIA. Ambiguity around the Federal Reserve’s next policy move added to market uncertainty, expectations around the Fed’s action at December’s meeting have been shifting wildly. U.S. Treasury yields slipped late in the week as expectations for a December rate cut rose sharply. The delayed September jobs report showed solid hiring but a rising unemployment rate, further muddying the economic outlook. Bitcoin suffered a steep sell-off, ending the week below $85k well off its October $12k high. Amid these swings, the importance of diversification becomes apparent.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Shutdown Ends, Markets Shift as AI Stocks Cool

On November 14th, the longest ever U.S. government shutdown ended after 43-days after a Congressional bill was passed to fund the government through January 30, 2026, restoring federal operations and backpay for workers. It is estimated the event reduced Q4 economic growth by 1.5 percentage points, but many expect economic growth will rebound in 2026. The technology sector (particularly AI companies), which recently led market gains, has underperformed to begin November as investors rotated into health care, energy, and materials sectors. The probability of a December Fed rate cut dropped sharply to below 50%. Bond yields rose across maturities as Fed officials continue to signal caution on rate cuts. Meanwhile, Bitcoin extended its decline. Market volatility increased, with the VIX remaining elevated and the S&P 500 bouncing off key technical support but not setting new highs. However, S&P 500 earnings outperformed expectations, supporting broader market resilience despite recent sector rotation and uncertainty over delayed economic data releases.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Fed Cuts Rates Amid Shutdown and Trade Talks

Markets ended October near record highs, shrugging off several potential headwinds including a more hawkish Federal Reserve, ongoing government shutdown, and high-stakes U.S.-China trade negotiations. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected but signaled further cuts, especially in December, are far from certain.  Markets had previously priced in the near certainty of a December rate cut, so the Fed’s news led to a sell-off in bonds and a rise in Treasury yields as expectations adjusted. The Trump-Xi meeting resulted in a partial easing of trade tensions, with both sides agreeing to roll back some tariffs and trade restrictions, which should provide relief to supply chains and corporate margins. Despite the government shutdown delaying key economic data, private sector indicators suggested underlying economic resilience. Corporate earnings were robust, with most S&P 500 companies beating expectations, especially in large-cap tech, which has helped propel major equity indexes to new highs. However, market breadth narrowed and volatility remains elevated, with small- and mid-cap stocks lagging their large cap peers. The AI-driven rally in tech continues, though some concerns about overvaluation are circulating. Overall, while volatility picked up, the market rally remained intact.  Caution is warranted heading into November with the government shutdown still looming and increased uncertainty on the future actions of the Fed.

Market Update: October 17, 2025

In today's complex financial landscape, staying informed is key to making sound investment decisions and creating a secure financial future. Our job at DFG is to help our clients navigate the changing financial landscape within the context of their personal financial plan in a way that brings them confidence, comfort, and security. Toward this goal, below is the latest Market Update issued by Daken Vanderburg, CFA, the Chief Investment Officer of MassMutual Wealth Management, which provides commentary on the current state of the economy and explores the impact of tariffs on the markets.As always, the Davis Financial Group Team wants to hear from you – please share your thoughts, questions, and ideas with us at info@davisfinancialgroup.com or give us a call at (413) 584-3098.CRN202803-8317719

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Inflation Cools as Markets Reach Record Highs

Major U.S. equity indices hit all-time highs as the current bull market celebrated its third anniversary since the October 2022 bottom. The CPI report brought softer-than-expected inflation data, which supported expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming meeting and reinforced a supportive backdrop for risk assets. Earnings season continued, with most reporting S&P 500 companies beating estimates and looks poised to mark the ninth consecutive quarter of earnings growth. Market breadth improved across US large and small caps, with most stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages, suggesting broader participation as the market rally continues. Crude oil prices rebounded sharply after recent declines, while gold saw its first weekly setback in over two months. The government shutdown continues, delaying most economic releases except for the CPI report. Despite mid-week volatility and ongoing trade tensions, market sentiment remained bullish. Potential for higher shot-term volatility exists with notable upcoming events such as tech earnings, the Trump/Xi trade meeting, and this week’s FOMC decision. Overall, the foundation of the bull market appears solid, with resilient earnings and supportive monetary policy driving optimism laying the groundwork for continued gains into 2026.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Trade Tensions Rise as Gold Hits Record Highs

The U.S. government shutdown entered its second week and has become the fourth longest on record with low expectations of a quick resolution. Despite this, markets chopped sideways most of the week until experiencing a selloff on Friday, following President Trump’s announcing the potential for higher tariffs on Chinese imports. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones all posted weekly losses, breaking a multi-week rally. Despite mounting disruptions from the shutdown, markets appear focused on AI sector headlines, expectations of falling interest rates in months ahead, and trade policy developments. A bright spot in the volatility, gold continued to surge as its price broke above $4,000 per ounce, reflecting potential longer-term fiscal concerns and safe-haven demand. The Federal Reserve released meeting minutes reaffirming expectations for further rate cuts, even as economic data releases are delayed by the shutdown. It appears the Federal Reserve may be “operating in the dark” as labor market data is suspended, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to pull in some furloughed workers to release the October CPI on October 24 before suspending further data. Looking ahead, Q3 earnings season is set to begin, with expectations for continued growth in corporate profits.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Shutdown Begins as Markets Stay Resilient

Beginning October 1, the U.S. government entered a shutdown, halting nonessential operations and delaying key economic data releases (including jobs and inflation reports). Leading up to this, economic growth has bounced back strongly from the negative Q1 result, driven by resilient consumer spending and record investments in artificial intelligence. The labor market has showed some signs of softening, with hiring slowing and Number of unemployed workers exceeding the number of open positions for the first time since 2021. Though, layoffs remain limited outside the government sector. The Federal Reserve recently resumed interest rate cuts and expectations are for another cut in October, in response to weaker labor indicators and continuing its latest decision-making amid data uncertainty. Equity markets remained resilient, with the S&P 500 reaching fresh all-time highs. AI innovation and the prospect of lower rates are fueling recent market strength, while historical precedent suggests shutdowns have minimal long-term impact on equities. Alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold rallied, while oil prices fell sharply due to oversupply concerns. Volatility ticked up modestly, but remained well below year-to-date highs, and earnings expectations for the upcoming season remained robust.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Strong GDP, Rising Yields, and Gold at Record Highs

Last week, U.S. economic data surprised to the upside, with second-quarter GDP growth revised higher to 3.8% annualized, well above trend rates. Consumer spending remained healthy, and personal income and spending for August both exceeded forecasts, signaling continued household strength. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now points to third-quarter growth near 3.9%. Inflation, as measured by the Fed’s preferred PCE index, ticked up slightly but remained in line with expectations, with headline PCE at 2.7% and core at 2.9%. Treasury yields rose modestly, driven by strong economic data, while expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025 edged lower. Equity markets saw volatility, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high before pulling back, partially fueled by profit-taking in tech and AI stocks. Gold continued its rally, setting another record high, and oil surged over 5% for its biggest weekly gain in months. Political uncertainty around a potential U.S. government shutdown and upcoming jobs data remain key risks for markets.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Fed Cuts Rates as Markets Hit Record Highs

Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve resumed its rate-cutting cycle, delivering a widely anticipated 25 basis point reduction in response to signs of a slowing labor market. While most FOMC members expect further cuts, there is significant uncertainty about the timing and extent, which could fuel market volatility as investors parse economic data. The Fed’s move was seen as proactive “risk management,” aiming to ensure against recession risks without signaling imminent economic distress. U.S. equity markets responded positively, with all major indices closing at record highs and small caps outperforming large caps for the week. Retail sales surprised to the upside, indicating resilient consumer demand despite labor market softness and persistent inflation. Yields on U.S. government bonds rose modestly, especially for longer durations, even as mortgage rates declined.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Labor Market Weakens, Rate Cuts in Focus

Last week was a loaded week for US labor market data, and it contained clear signs of a softening U.S. labor market. August jobs data showed only 22,000 jobs were added, well below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. This weaker labor data increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets expectations for a rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points at the September meeting. Eyes will be on this week’s CPI and PPI releases, which will provide the last read on inflation going into the September meeting. Treasury yields fell sharply, supporting consumer and corporate borrowing, while the yield curve steepened, benefiting lenders. Equity markets were volatile to end the week, with the S&P 500 hitting an all-time high before pulling back following Friday’s nonfarm report. Despite the volatility, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq managed to post slightly positive weeks while the Dow Jones slipped slightly. Gold rallied to a record high, and mortgage rates saw their largest one-day drop in over a year.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Equity Markets Experienced Modest Declines

Last week, equity markets experienced modest declines as midweek gains were offset by a Friday sell-off ahead of the Labor Day weekend. The S&P 500 briefly reached a new all-time high Thursday before slipping back below. AI remained a dominant  market driver, with NVIDIA’s earnings drawing significant attention.  Its muted stock reaction highlighted the challenge of lofty expectations. Economic data was generally positive, including an upward revision to Q2 GDP growth and resilient consumer spending. However, inflation ticked higher, with core PCE rising to 2.9%. Expectations for a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve continue to grow. Market breadth improved across large and small cap stocks (measured by stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages), suggesting healthy underlying sentiment. Market history suggests we may experience seasonal volatility risks in September and October; however, fundamentals remain supportive so this could create opportunities to strategically rebalance across asset classes.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Markets Reacted Positively Following News of a Potential Fed Pivot

Last week, markets reacted positively following the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, where Chair Jerome Powell signaled a change in monetary policy may be necessary. Markets reacted with rising expectations of a rate cut at the September meeting. This dovish tone sparked a strong Friday rally, lifting the S&P 500 to a modest weekly gain despite sliding for five consecutive days prior. Under the surface, market leadership rotated from mega-cap tech stocks to cyclical and value sectors. Bond yields fell across the curve as expectations for a September rate cut climbed to nearly 90%, and futures markets priced in two cuts this year. Economic data was mixed: PMI readings surprised to the upside, while jobless claims ticked higher. Retail earnings from Walmart, Target, and Lowe’s highlighted resilient consumer spending despite tariff-related cost pressures. Overall, markets appear optimistic, supported by a potential Fed pivot and broadening equity participation, though volatility risks remain as inflation and labor trends evolve.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Markets Responded to a Mix of Data, Results, and Geopolitical Developments

Last week, markets responded to a mix of inflation data, earnings results, and geopolitical developments. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month, in line with expectations, while core CPI climbed to 3.1%, the highest since February, driven by rising service costs. However, the Producer Price Index (PPI) surprised to the upside, increasing 0.9%, raising concerns about future consumer price pressures. Despite this, equity markets remained resilient, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining around 1% and the Dow Jones 1.8% over the week. Small-cap and value stocks outperformed their large-cap and growth peers, possibly signaling a broadening of market leadership as expectations for a September Fed rate cut continue to increase. Earnings season continued to support bullish sentiment, especially in the tech sector, where mega-cap stocks drove much of the growth. Tariff developments also made headlines, with new levies on semiconductors. Overall, markets showed strength but remain sensitive to inflation trends and central bank signals.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: US Equities Rebounded Strongly

Last week, US equities rebounded strongly, led by technology and consumer discretionary stocks, with the S&P 500 gaining over 2% and the NASDAQ hitting a new record high. Corporate earnings continued to deliver upside surprises, especially among AI- related firms. Overall, reported EPS growth for Q2 climbed to 11.4%. Treasuries experienced slightly weaker demand at auctions. Yields experienced a modest steepening as short-term rates continue to tick lower while long-term rates higher. Renewed expectations of an impending rate cut appear to be part of the causes of falling short-term yields. Uncertainty on US monetary, trade, and taxation policies are contributing to rising long-term rates. The services sector, which accounts for around 70% of US GDP, showed mixed signals but still appears to be signaling the sector is expanding, albeit at a slowing rate. Tariffs increased from the April 10% baseline for more than 90 countries, including a new 100% rate on semiconductors, though exemptions softened the impact. Tariffs vary widely from 10% to 50%, but most countries are facing rates within the 10% - 20% range.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Markets Continued Upward Trajectory

Markets continued their upward trajectory, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue climbing to new all-time highs. Markets have been buoyed by strong Q2 earnings, new trade deals, and resilient economic data. This upcoming week is loadedwith earnings and economic releases, which introduces the potential for increased short-term volatility on the back of any surprises. Thus far Q2 is off to a strong start for earnings releases. With just under half of the S&P 500 companies reporting this week, we will get more clarity on the strength of earnings growth and potential impacts of US tariff policy on future growth prospects. A recent string of trade deals has led to decreasing uncertainty around US trade policy and created a template for future negotiations. While geopolitical tensions remain elevated in parts of the world, equity markets have showed resilience, supported by solid fundamentals and corporate performance. As valuations are high relative to history, a strong earnings season is important to support the recent growth trend.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Nasdaq Reaches New All-time Highs

Last week, U.S. capital markets continued their upward momentum, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new all-time highs, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and resilient economic data. Retail sales rebounded sharply in June, and inflation data remained within manageable levels, helping to support investor sentiment. Earnings season kicked off with better-than-expected results from major banks and tech firms, although some stocks like Netflix saw muted reactions despite strong reports. Geopolitical tensions added some uncertainty, particularly with the potential for US tariff policy to influence inflation and trade dynamics going forward. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve signaled a cautious stance, with markets pricing in potential rate cuts later this year. Overall, despite some volatility and policy uncertainty, markets remained supported by solid fundamentals and investor optimism heading into the heart of earnings season.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: U.S. Capital Markets Continued Strong Upward Momentum

Last week, U.S. capital markets continued their strong upward momentum, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new all-time highs. This rally was fueled by a combination of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, falling oil prices, and a robust performance from mega-cap tech stocks. A better-than-expected U.S. jobs report also boosted investor sentiment, showing 147,000 new jobs added in June and a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. However, the labor force participation rate declined, and private sector hiring was relatively soft, tempering some of the optimism. Markets also responded positively to a new U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement, which provided clarity on tariffs despite higher rates than previously expected. Meanwhile, Congress passed a significant tax and spending bill, which is expected to offer a modest economic boost in 2026 but raises concerns about long-term federal debt. Bond yields rose as the strong jobs data reduced expectations for imminent Fed rate cuts, with the 2-year Treasury yield climbing notably. Overall, while bullish momentum remains strong, markets may face volatility ahead due to potential trade developments and overbought conditions.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: US Equity Markets Surged

US equity markets surged as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both climbed over 3% and posted record highs. Megacap technology stocks led the charge, driven by strong earnings and AI-related optimism. The broader rally was partially fueled by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which led to a sharp drop in oil prices. U.S. crude fell from over $75 to around $65 per barrel. This decline helped ease inflation concerns and supported consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve signaled a continued path toward rate cuts, with markets now pricing in two to three cuts by year-end. Increased expectations of lower long-term rates helped further boost equity valuations. However, trade tensions resurfaced late in the week as the U.S. abruptly ended talks with Canada over a digital services tax, triggering some intraday volatility.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Markets Reflected a Cautious Tone

Last week, markets reflected a cautious tone as investors digested a mix of economic signals and geopolitical developments. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive meeting, maintaining a patient stance amid lingering inflation and trade uncertainties. Updated projections showed a slight downgrade in 2025 GDP expectations to 1.4% and an upward revision in inflation forecasts, suggesting a stagflationary tilt. Retail sales data was mixed—headline sales declined, but the control group, which feeds into GDP, rose modestly. Housing data was broadly weak, with notable drops in permits and starts, while jobless claims remained stable. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, kept oil prices elevated, contributing to market unease. Equity markets, including the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, showed signs of consolidation, with breadth indicators weakening. Overall, markets appear to be in a “wait- and-see” mode, with near-term sentiment slightly bearish barring any major geopolitical or trade-related surprises.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Markets Navigated a Complex Mix

Last week, markets navigated a complex mix of geopolitical tension, economic data, and policy expectations. Equities experienced a late-week selloff triggered by Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and subsequent counterstrikes. Oil prices surged to a four-month high, which raised concerns about inflationary pressures. However, inflation data came in cooler than expected, with CPI and PPI both undershooting forecasts, helping to anchor expectations for potential Fed rate cuts later this year. Treasury yields declined over the week, supported by strong demand in long-term bond auctions. Meanwhile, U.S. and China trade talks progressed, with a tentative framework reached, and consumer sentiment rebounded sharply, suggesting improved confidence. Market breadth also expanded, indicating broader participation in the recent equity rally despite near-term technical volatility.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Markets Showed Resilience Last Week

Markets showed resilience last week, with global equities rebounding strongly - driven by solid corporate earnings, easing trade tensions, and a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report. The labor market added 139,000 jobs in May, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%, which helped ease fears of a sharp economic slowdown. Despite downward revisions to prior months’ job gains and a dip in labor force participation, wage growth continued to outpace inflation. The S&P 500 and other major indexes posted gains, with small-cap stocks outperforming large caps. Volatility declined and oil prices surged. However, uncertainty remains around trade negotiations, fiscal policy debates, and the Federal Reserve’s next moves, with rate cuts not expected until September at the earliest. We are watching upcoming inflation data and Treasury auctions for further market direction.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Technology Companies Reported Strong Earnings

Last week, technology companies reported strong earnings, with NVIDIA showing strong growth in AI chip demand despite trade restrictions. However, ongoing tariff disputes continued to create uncertainty, impacting market sentiment. Courts are reviewing Trump’s authority to enact certain tariffs, which has increased the level of uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. The S&P 500 rose by about 6% in May, but US equities are still essentially flat on the year after the volatility of recent months. Despite some downward revisions due to tariff issues, earnings growth for the S&P 500 is projected to remain stable, supported by a strong labor market. Economic indicators showed mixed results, with improvements in consumer confidence and personal income, but an unexpected rise in jobless claims. Investors should stay diversified, strategically rebalance their portfolios, and stay invested as market volatility is expected in the coming months. Time in the market is greater than timing the market.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Equities, Bonds, US Dollar Fell Last Week

Equities, bonds, and the US dollar fell last week due to US budget concerns and increased uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies. US debt was downgraded by Moody’s due to concerns about lack of progress from prior Congresses and presidential administrations to curb rising government deficits. Standard & Poor’s (2011) and Fitch (2023) previously downgraded US debt. Now all three major rating agencies align on an AA-rating. A tax bill passed from the House to Senate seeking to extend the 2017 tax cuts with additional provisions. Congressional Budget Office estimates the net impact of tax cuts, new spending, revenue, and additional interest-rate costs to increase the federal budget deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade. Long-term interest rates have been trending upwards since September 2024, when the rate cutting cycle began. The combination of increasing debt levels and higher interest rates are driving federal interest costs to historic highs. Trump threatened the EU with 50% tariffs and Apple with a 25% rate, which served to increase uncertainty around US trade policies and contributed to the down week for equities. As negotiations progress, trade uncertainty should decrease but as last week showed potential for bumps along the way remains.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: US Equity Markets Sharply Rallied

Last week, US equity markets sharply rallied driven by positive trade negotiation developments and economic data. The U.S. and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days while working towards a longer-term deal, which led to a sharp rally in equity markets. Additionally, the U.S. administration announced plans to ease trade restrictions related to artificial-intelligence chips, further boosting investor sentiment and benefitting the tech sector. Economic data releases showed signs of inflation potentially moderating, with the Consumer Price Index rising by 0.2% and Producer Price Index falling by 0.5% in April. Retail sales posted a small monthly increase but may be showing signs of weakening. Despite these positive developments, consumer sentiment remains low, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market. Overall, the markets found comfort in hard data and trade deals, but investors should remain prepared for periodic volatility as policy continues to be determined.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: US Large Cap Stocks Traded Lower, Then Trended Upward

US large cap stocks traded lower to start the week, then trended upward as positive trade news broke around a trade deal with the UK and developing talks with China. Despite the late week rally, US large caps posted modest losses for the week. US mid- and small caps as well as international stocks posted modest gains. Unsurprisingly, the Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged, highlighting risks of higher inflation and unemployment. Chair Powell maintained his message of waiting for more data to be available on the impacts of tariffs and other metrics before taking further action. Key economic readings related to the services sector were mixed but remained in expansion territory. The start of positive trade developments is reassuring. The US still has a healthy labor market. Despite slowing, corporate earnings are still projected to grow. Increased trade uncertainty is likely to lead to increased volatility and potentially slower economic growth in the short-term. Potential tax reform or deregulation efforts following these trade negotiations could provide stimulus to the markets.

Your Capital Markets Snapshot: Markets Rebound Amid Mixed Signals

Last week, markets experienced a mix of positive and negative developments. U.S. equities rebounded nicely. The S&P 500 is up about 8% over the last two weeks, driven by solid first-quarter economic and earnings data. Corporate earnings growth for Q1 has been positive. About 76% of S&P 500 companies reported positive earnings surprises. However, guidance for Q2 has weakened due to uncertainty around consumer spending and trade tariffs. U.S. GDP growth turned negative in Q1, largely due to a surge in imports ahead of higher tariff rates. Despite this, the labor market appears resilient, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2% and a positive surprise in job gains. Overall, uncertainty is still high around trade and tariff policies. As the administration softened its positions, markets have since recovered much of the ground given during early April’s selloff and volatility episode. We expect volatility to be present until more certainty around global trade policies occurs. This should provide opportunities to strategically rebalance portfolios and diversify across markets segments and asset classes.

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